Experimental population estimates from linked administrative data

Project Description

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Statistics NZ’s Census Transformation Programme is exploring the possibility of using administrative data to produce population estimates of the New Zealand resident population.

We have produced an experimental series of population estimates for New Zealand by single year of age and sex at 30 June 2007–14.

You can download the following:

We derived these experimental population estimates using linked administrative data from the IDI. We use activity in administrative sources over a 12 month period to indicate an individual’s presence in New Zealand. We then remove individuals who have died before the reference date or were identified as being overseas residents.

We are publishing this research to update users on our progress and invite feedback to support future development.

These experimental population estimates are NOT official statistics. Rather, they are published as output from research using a different methodology than is currently used to produce the official estimated resident population (ERP).

What you'll see

You will see a series of population estimates for New Zealand by single year of age
and sex at 30 June for the years 2007 ̶ 14. The time series is available in both CSV and Excel format. Experimental population estimates from linked administrative data: methods and results is a technical paper that describes the methods used, and compares the experimental estimates with the official ERP. It explores some of the potential causes for any observed differences and highlights areas for future work.

We'd like your feedback about

  • the overall usefulness of the series and accompanying report
  • any suggestions for possible improvements to the method described
  • any other explanations for the observed trends
  • anything else you would like to see in future releases.

To provide feedback, click on the 'Give feedback' button above.

Data sources

This series has been produced using administrative data in the IDI from a range of agencies, including:

  • Inland Revenue
  • Ministry of Education
  • Ministry of Health
  • Department of Internal Affairs
  • Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
  • Accident Compensation Corporation.

Data quality

This is an experimental series with known limitations. We are aware of potential sources of error leading to undercoverage (people missing from the population) or overcoverage (people incorrectly included in the population). See Experimental population estimates from linked administrative data: methods and results for more details.

Disclaimer

The results in this paper are not official statistics. They were created for research purposes using the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics NZ.

Access to the anonymised data used in this study was provided by Statistics NZ in accordance with security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. Only people authorised by the Statistics Act 1975 are allowed to see data about a particular person, household, business, or organisation. The results in this paper were confidentialised to protect these groups from identification.

Careful consideration has been given to the privacy, security, and confidentiality issues associated with using administrative and survey data in the IDI. See Privacy impact assessment for the Integrated Data Infrastructure for more information.

Published 3 October 2016

Project Details